Here is my theory. Firstly AGI i.e. human level intelligence will take far longer than people imagine. Not happening before 5 years and most likely even longer.
Even without AGI, AI has been around for more than a decade and is already having an impact. Increased productivity will lead to some job losses. Most of the layoffs we have seen in the last year though have been because of economic reasons and over hiring due to incorrect estimates of demand projection.
As AI progress further, there will be more job losses but eventually we will get to a point where AI induced job loss will become a political problem. Restrictions on deployment of AI will be difficult as it will lead companies to fall behind their competitors in other countries hence politicians will look towards solutions like UBI.
Eventually all countries are destined to go the way of Japan i.e. a declining population. AI will be really helpful here since AI or robots will be required to take over jobs for which humans aren't available. This is also because most countries don't want to rely on too much immigration.
As AI becomes smart enough to plan, execute, extract, build, maintain AI and other Robots and with harnessing enough Solar, Wind, Nuclear (Fission and maybe even Fusion) the cost of energy and most goods will decrease. Combined with a declining population it is possible for us to become a post-abundance society. However, there will be a period of hell and turmoil we will have to go through before we get there.
Hello8